Bulgaria’s elections at a crossroads – the shadow of the deep state

Bulgaria’s upcoming early elections are increasingly being framed as a referendum ‘for’ or ‘against’ political mogul Delyan Peevski. If Peevski fails to pass the 4% threshold to enter parliament, his political career and influence could be severely curtailed. While many expect him to succeed, his resources are stretched, having reportedly spent 100 million leva in the last elections.

Peevski’s aggressive PR campaign has made him a central figure, forcing other political leaders, notably Boyko Borissov, to align themselves with him. Borissov, whose GERB party has struggled to form a government with Peevski’s support, openly acknowledges GERB’s subservience to Peevski’s will.

A future GERB-led government dominated by Peevski would undermine its legitimacy both at home and abroad. It is also likely to alienate the Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (PPDB) coalition, deepening political polarisation. To maintain control, Peevski would likely resort to repressive tactics and discredit the opposition through media channels, provoking a backlash from civil society and international criticism.

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Peevski’s influence extends beyond GERB to other parties such as There Is Such a People (ITN), Revival and the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), further complicating the political landscape. These parties could support a future GERB-led cabinet, while keeping their distance and criticising it at the same time – a strategy reminiscent of the 2020 protests. This tactic is designed to prevent the Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (PPDB) coalition from reaping the full benefits of being the main opposition.

Despite Peevski’s current prominence, his high profile could ultimately backfire. As a figure linked to the ‘deep state’, his public profile could clash with the interests of this shadowy network. His overexposure could not only mobilise public opposition, but also prompt the deep state to distance itself from him – potentially leading to his political downfall. This scenario could mirror the fate of former Bulgarian leader Andrei Lukanov, whose removal was similarly engineered by the deep state.

Ilian Vassilev