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Disruption in Shah Deniz 2 Gas Production: Implications for Bulgaria and Beyond

On the morning of January 7, the Azeri Gas Supply Company (AGSC) reported an unplanned disruption in production from the Shah Deniz 2 platforms. This issue has hindered the company’s ability to fulfill its contractual obligations for natural gas deliveries via the TAP pipeline and the IGB interconnector, including its agreement with Bulgargas.

Emergency Measures and Gas Imports

To address this shortfall, Bulgaria has been compelled to import natural gas under its contract with Botas via the Malkoclar-Strandzha interconnector, likely involving Russian gas. This conclusion is drawn from the absence of LNG cargo deliveries scheduled at Turkish terminals during the period.

Uncertainty and Ongoing Challenges

The reasons behind the production collapse remain unclear. While unfavorable weather conditions in the Caspian Sea have been mentioned, no definitive explanation has been provided. Additionally, there is no certainty about the duration of the emergency. Current projections suggest that production difficulties may persist until January 15, though this date has already been postponed multiple times.

Broader Context

This disruption occurs just a week after the suspension of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, which resulted in an increase in gas flows transited through Bulgaria. The confluence of these events highlights vulnerabilities in energy supply chains and raises questions about the resilience of infrastructure and contractual arrangements.

As production challenges at Shah Deniz 2 continue, the need for alternative supplies underscores the interconnected nature of regional energy markets. This situation warrants close monitoring, as further delays could exacerbate market instability in the region.

Ilian Vassilev

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