Are the Trump Cards Still in Trump’s Hands?
In his quest to monetize America’s support for Ukraine so far, President Trump is expanding his claims over Ukraine’s strategic assets, which he believes could serve as security guarantees against Russian attacks. This move appears suspiciously coordinated with the Kremlin: as Russian assaults intensify on one front, Trump offers mediation to the beleaguered nation on the other. By the standards of high-minded morality, this hardly qualifies as principled policy. Yet, within the realm of Trump’s transactional diplomacy, it passes as ‘business-as-usual’.
Unconfirmed reports have surfaced on social media suggesting that Western intelligence agencies suspect the Kremlin is quietly encouraging Trump’s ambitions. Beyond the proof, there’s a certain logic to this. For months, business envoys tied to the American president have been negotiating with German and Russian stakeholders over the potential acquisition of Nord Stream 2 by a U.S. company. The pitch? Ownership could secure Russian gas access to the German market. It’s only a matter of time before this logic extends to Ukraine’s gas transmission network, much as it’s now being applied to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. In their eagerness to broker lucrative “deals” between Russian energy resources and European markets, Trump’s team has long crossed the line from the realm of the feasible into the territory of the fantastical.
The Players and the Game: Business Over Peace
Notably, the key figure in these Russia negotiations isn’t General Kellogg but businessman Steve Witkoff. A glance at Witkoff’s time spent in talks—and the tangible progress on ceasefire or war termination—reveals little. It’s not hard to imagine that much of the discussion between the parties centers on business opportunities rather than peace. Meanwhile, Trump’s hand has shifted dramatically. His ability to impose solutions on complex issues—be it the war in Ukraine, ceasefire talks, or business ventures like arms sales, Russian energy mediation, investments in Russia, and Ukraine’s reconstruction—has dwindled. His business-minded diplomats overlook a critical detail: Trump has voluntarily relinquished his role as the leader and spokesperson of the collective West, which was and is his critical bargaining chip in talking to Moscow or Beijing.
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This erosion of trust in U.S. security guarantees has pushed America’s allies to scramble for alternatives. Canada is turning to the EU, while London is assembling a “coalition of the willing” from disillusioned nations worldwide, reeling from the abrupt collapse of confidence in Trump’s America.
Where Trump’s Deal-Making Diplomacy Went Wrong
1. Loss of Western Leverage
Trump’s first misstep was losing the ability to negotiate and speak on behalf of the collective West. Now, every deal he strikes with Putin is met with skepticism—not just by Ukraine, but by Europe and other allies. This has sharply diminished his bargaining power and utility to Putin. The partial ceasefire over energy infrastructure is a telling example: not only did it fail to materialize, but Russia resumed attacks mere hours after last Tuesday’s phone call, leaving no trace of a truce. This was the most significant outcome of those talks—a resounding zero. Ukraine, unsurprisingly after being attacked, walked away, and the ceasefire idea evaporated. Putin has made his demands clear, and the list is extensive. Yet, on every point, Trump lacks the authority to negotiate with Putin alone; he needs buy-in from Europe and Ukraine which seems less and less. This is hardly the image of a leader of the free world—a self-inflicted wound.
2. Ignoring Russia’s Core Motivations
Second, Trump’s rush for quick wins and a hasty ceasefire overlooks the driving forces behind Russia’s war. No truce, even for a few weeks, is possible without addressing the root cause: the Kremlin’s imperial ambitions to dominate Ukraine and Eastern Europe. This isn’t about NATO or Western encroachment—Russia forced Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO membership extending Russia’s borders with NATO.
Rather, Ukraine is central to Putin’s vision of imperial statehood, and war is its sole pillar. Trump and his team deliberately ignore this fundamental driver, which isn’t a quirk of Putin’s personality but a centuries-old feature of Russian statecraft: the recurring failure of its rulers to offer citizens a globally competitive model of prosperity and security beyond militarization and brutal force. Against this backdrop, Putin’s Russia cannot revert to the civilian economy of the Yeltsin era; it lacks the capacity to sustain itself without coercion. Peaceful coexistence with Putin’s Russia is a delusion unless Europe agrees to pay a security tribute to the Kremlin’s czar—whether through exclusive deals for Russian resources or by ceding spheres of influence, paving the way for imperial rent extraction.
3. Awakening Europe
Third, Putin’s war has roused Europe—Germany included—igniting its defense industry and resolve to secure itself independently of Trump or Putin’s whims. This has closed Europe’s Achilles’ heel: its overreliance on the U.S. as a global military leader. Trump’s irritation at European leaders is palpable, especially over Macron’s offer of nuclear guarantees to the EU and his pledge—backed by the UK and a coalition—that peacekeeping forces could be deployed to Ukraine if Kyiv agrees, regardless of Putin’s stance. The unspoken target of this message? Trump himself: “No matter what you and Putin decide.”
The Cost of America’s Drift
This decoupling from Europe carries a steep price for the U.S., particularly its military-industrial complex, which stands to lose billions in long-term contracts. Once Europe’s defense industry shifts to self-sufficiency—spurred by Washington’s unpredictability—it will rely far less on American arms in the long term. Equally inevitable is the erosion of trust between NATO’s European forces and the U.S., forcing allies to draft defense plans without American involvement.
Russian propaganda has seized this moment, amplifying doubts among European allies via social media. Posts brim with “credible” leaks from influence agents, turning worst-case scenarios of transatlantic rifts into mainstream perceptions. Musk’s flirtations with Starlink disruptions or rumors of F-35 and F-16 capability cuts for allies and Ukraine have been weaponized to great effect.
Trump’s Fading Leverage
Trump’s greatest weakness in his dealings with Putin is that Russia craves Europe as a trade and business partner—a role Trump can no longer credibly broker. The closer he aligns with Putin, the less useful he becomes to the Kremlin and the more resolute the West grows in pursuit of strategic autonomy. Putin’s version of victory—control over occupied Ukrainian territories like Crimea and parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson—remains internationally unrecognized and economically untenable. His militarized economy and society, cemented by wartime repression, may secure his personal power, but at the cost of depleting Russia’s reserves and plunging its economy into an abyss no sanctions relief can salvage.
Trump’s offers of sanctions relief or investment sweeteners falter in his geopolitical shortsightedness. He cannot force businesses—American, European, or Asian—to invest in Putin’s Russia, where political risk is unmanageable. For Putin, war is the regime’s lifeline and sole claim to global relevance. Yet, even as Trump isolates America with trade wars and disengagement, he’s shrinking the U.S.’s ability to project power through alliances—a self-imposed limit on its global standing.
A Misadventure in Transactional Power
Trump’s strategy has awakened Europe, diminished America’s influence, and left Putin’s Russia teetering on a hollow victory. His deal-making diplomacy—obsessed with quick wins and blind to deeper currents—has neither tamed the war nor secured lasting gains. As Europe forges its own path and Russia clings to imperial delusions, Trump’s America finds itself sidelined, a broker with dwindling leverage in a world it no longer leads.
