Alternatives & Analyses: Peevski vs. Borisov – The countdown has begun

Geshev’s “mouth wind” – idle talk – warning of today confirms one of my predictions – there is no place for both Peevski and Borisov “at the top” of the power pyramid in Bulgaria. The Prosecutor General seems to enjoy being a loose cannon – taking the role of the second who has just started the countdown to the final act.

His mentor Peevski feels that time is working against him, as he has lost the chance to come to terms with the EU, and the US. PM Borisov has failed to use the resources of his office to protect him.
Geshev is echoing Peevski’s message to Borissov – if I go down, you will go with me – we have too many things in common – making deals, money, and Peevski will not be the sole loser.
A classic ending in the mob world of both.

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Geshev’s ‘punta mara’ capacity to imitate things is proverbial. He is not interested in indictments or verdicts in court.
The guy born somewhere in the Sofia Region (details of his place of birth are still missing) believes in the pre-trial justice, where he can eavesdrop, arrest, harass, engage in character assassinations, in PR actions, etc. – all part of his sheriff’s world.

Peevski believes that if Geshev’s is quick enough to generate public support, he might become a Teflon politician, replacing PM Borissov.
Peevski’s and Dogan’s behind-the-scenes roles are apparent; however, their interests are not identical. The owner of the ‘sarayi’  is not happy with Peevski but seems unable to control him. He is careful not to confess his relative impotence versus one of his pet projects, opting to remain silent and leave it to Darwin’s ‘survival of the fittest’.

The attack on the privatization process and the usual target – Kostov is a desperate distraction, aimed to push back the direct clash between Borisov and Peevski. Ivan Kostov is a common enemy, that could help them both buy time.

Peevski’s attempt to become the leader of the Movement of Rights and Freedom is a rescue operation. He seeks a defense line against possible sanctions by the US or the EC, getting ready to fight back via Geshev and his media,  stirring anti-Western and anti-US sentiments. Peevski’s extensive financing of Geshev’s image-making campaign won’t do the Prosecutor any good, nor win him friends in the West. The MRF deputy is desperately trying to project himself as the good guy, who can deliver, where Borisov has failed – address crime and corruption.

Geshev’s trying to boost Peevski’s value as the ultimate deal maker in line with Trump’s transactional diplomacy. Yet it is too little, too late.
The Prosecutor General is not omnipotent. He may scare, manipulate, pressure people, and institutions replicating Putin’s anti-oligarchic and elite-disciplining drive of 2003. Still, he is a ‘hot air’ balloon – more form than substance – and is unable to spare Peevski his inevitable and fatal end game.  The reality check will come soon as Geshev’s performance is benchmarked against results and impact on social justice.

In the case of his run against Vasil Bozhkov, comparing the moves of a mathematician and a militiaman exposes key vulnerabilities in Peevski-Geshev’s armor – short-term gains against the absence of long-term planning. The Bulgarian taxpayers will foot the bill for his current mistakes in enforcing Peevski’s prosecutor-oligarchic model of rule and justice. The National Lottery flop is likely to cost Bulgarian taxpayers at least 50 million leva in damages to traders and winners, unable to collect their prizes.
The KTB bomb is ticking as the case progresses in court, exposing gaps in the indictment and Geshev’s work. The defense team seems in good shape. The General Prosecutor has managed to turn judges against him, further proving critical judgment lapses.

When and if Peevski arrives at his D-day and loses grip on the money flows that feed and sustain the state capture network, Geshev will have to proceed further on his own, with too many sins and too few friends.
Without significant financial flows to nourish the corruption networks, the entire pyramid of power will collapse.

Ilian Vassilev

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