Rumen Radev and the Kremlin’s Referendum Gambit

President Rumen Radev’s proposal for a referendum on Bulgaria’s Eurozone membership marks a calculated bid to destabilize the country and rally pro-Russian forces under his leadership. This move echoes the “Simion scenario” in Romania, leveraging aggressive anti-European and anti-Ukrainian rhetoric to exploit populist discontent ahead of key elections. Timed to coincide with Vazrazhdane’s planned “anti-Euro rebellion” on May 16, 2025, the campaign promises to amplify economic fearmongering, nationalist fervor, and disinformation, potentially with tacit support from Russian and Hungarian political circles. The goal is to incite public outrage and provoke confrontations, a classic tactic for sowing chaos.

The proposal’s timing, just before the European Commission’s critical report on Bulgaria’s Eurozone readiness, is deliberate. By creating a sense of crisis, Radev aims to undermine Bulgaria’s European integration and bolster his image as a populist strongman.

A Political Ploy, Not a Legal Stand

The resignation of Radev’s legal affairs secretary, Krum Zarkov, in protest highlights the referendum’s lack of legal grounding. Bulgaria’s Constitutional Court has already ruled such referendums non-viable, stripping the proposal of legitimacy. This is no legal crusade but a tactical maneuver to shore up Radev’s base amid setbacks, including his waning influence over security services and failure to align Bulgaria’s foreign and defense policies with his preferences.

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Radev’s primary aim is to position Vice President Iliana Yotova as his successor in the 2026 presidential election, preempting rival nationalist and pro-Russian factions. The referendum serves as a rallying cry to mobilize a loyal, ideologically driven base for future political battles. Unlike the fragmented parliamentary arena, where Radev would struggle against entrenched parties like GERB, BSP, or DPS – Novo Nachalo, the majoritarian presidential election plays to his strengths. By framing the referendum as a nationalist cause, he seeks to cement his role as the leader of Bulgaria’s pro-Russian core.

A Kremlin-Orchestrated Contingency

The referendum appears to be a Kremlin-backed fallback plan, triggered by the failure of other pro-Russian strategies. The collapse of hopes for a pro-Russia U.S. administration under Donald Trump, combined with Vazrazhdane’s inability to secure support for a no-confidence vote over Eurozone accession, has forced a strategic pivot. The no-confidence motion, implicitly targeting Bulgaria’s euro adoption, failed to gain traction even among populist groups like Velichie and Mech.

Recognizing his limited political capital to build a dominant party, Radev aims to become the symbolic leader of Bulgaria’s pro-Russian factions, forging a broader anti-European platform. Through Yotova, he seeks to maintain pro-Russian influence in the presidency, ensuring Moscow’s grip on Bulgaria’s highest office.

A Divided Geopolitical Stance

The recent visit of Polish President Andrzej Duda to Sofia underscored Bulgaria’s geopolitical divide. Duda’s staunch support for Ukraine contrasted sharply with Radev’s silence on Russia’s aggression and his refusal to criticize Vladimir Putin. This reticence has eroded Radev’s credibility as a neutral figure, firmly aligning him with Putin’s allies in Europe.

The Kremlin’s strategy is to entrench Bulgaria among Putin’s EU allies—Hungary, Slovakia, and potentially Romania if George Simion’s nationalist campaign succeeds. This bloc aims to obstruct key EU decisions, particularly on energy imports, weakening the Union’s cohesion in Southeastern Europe. Radev’s actions align with recent revelations about Hungary’s military preparations, including leaked recordings from May 8, 2025, of Defense Minister Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky discussing conflict outside NATO’s framework, possibly targeting Ukraine’s Zakarpattia region. Reports of apprehended Hungarian spies by the Ukrainian Security Services, assessing local reactions to a potential operation by the Hungarian army, underscore a coordinated effort to destabilize the region, with Bulgaria’s role critical to Moscow’s success.

A Defining Moment for Bulgaria

Radev knows the referendum is unlikely to block Bulgaria’s Eurozone accession, given the Constitutional Court’s rulings and the government’s 2026 euro adoption target. Its true purpose is to radicalize pro-Russian factions and spark unrest, amplifying societal divisions ahead of the Eurozone convergence report. This provocation risks plunging Bulgaria into intense internal conflict, pitting pro-European citizens against nationalist and pro-Russian groups at a time of economic and regional security challenges.

As this challenge unfolds, the resolve of Bulgaria’s citizens and leaders will determine whether the country remains anchored in the EU, defending European values on the frontlines starting with Ukraine, or falls prey to Moscow’s divisive ambitions.

Ilian Vassilev